SIDC URSIGRAM 40329 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Mar 2004, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Mar 2004 until 31 Mar 2004) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2004 10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 015 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2004 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 012 PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2004 10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 012 COMMENT: The solar wind speed has further decreased to from 750 km/s to 600km/s during the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field continued to vary between mildly northwards and mildly southwards (between -5nT and +5nT). Geomagnetic conditions have therefore remained mostly quiet with locally some excursions to active conditions. All indications are that we are near the end of the influence of the coronal hole, so we expect quiet conditions. Solar activity has again remained low. Only a number of B-flares and small C-flares have been observed, mostly from Catania sunspot group 93 (NOAA 0582). We expect solar activity to remain at this low level, with Catania 93 continuing as the most likely source of flares. SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Mar 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 129 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 028 AK WINGST : 021 ESTIMATED AP : 021 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT