SIDC URSIGRAM 40109
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Jan 2004 until 11 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 003
COMMENT: The activity in sunspot group Catania 33 (NOAA 0537) remains on
M-level and in group 30 (NOAA 0536) stayes on B-C level. Group Catania 33 could
produce some major M-flares or even an X-flare in the future.
The two (partial) halo CME's (or only one of them) mentioned yesterday
(possibly related to the M5.8 on 6/1 and to the M8.3 on 7/1) have probably
arrived on Earth, between 21:00 UT on 8/1 and 11:00 UT on 9/1 (today). They gave
at most one Kp=5 (minor storm), the solar wind speed reached a level of 580 km/s
and Bz mostly oscillated between -15 nT and 0 nT. For the next two days we
expect quiet geomagnetic conditions.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 8 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 068
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 120
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013
AK WINGST           : 010
ESTIMATED AP        : 008

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
9   0113 0122 0127 N03E49 M1.1                                33  0537                     
9   0114 0144 0158 N02E47 M3.2                                33  0537 SXI derived loc     
END
BT