SIDC URSIGRAM 50101
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Jan 2005, 1143UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Jan 2005 until 03 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 034
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA 0715) again produced 2 major flares in
the past 24 hours. Yesterday afternoon it was responsible for an M1.2 flare.
Early in the UT day it generated an X1.7 flare, its largest event up till now
and surprising in view of the relatively limited size of the sunspot group. No
LASCO images are available so far, but EIT images clearly show that both of
these major flares were accompanied by EIT waves and coronal dimmings. Thus,
CMEs were generated, which are most likely at least partial halo events. Shock
fronts from these CMEs may reach the earth during the next few days, but in the
absence of reliable speed estimates we cannot provide estimates of the arrival
times.
We expect further M-class flares from Catania sunspot group 98, with a small
chance for another X-flare. The group is also likely to generate more CMes with
an increasing probability of geo-effectiveness.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 31 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 037
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 099
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 017
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 011

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
31  1438  1445 1448 N04E38 M1.2       36 III/2                      98 0715 SXI-derived location
01  0001  0031 0039 N06E34 X1.7      760 CTM/1,II/2,IV/2,III/2      98 0715 SXI-derived location
END
BT