:Issued: 2005 Jan 14 1238 UTC :Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50114 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Jan 2005, 1232UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Jan 2005 until 16 Jan 2005) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 013 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 012 COMMENT: The solar speed is declining as the coronal hole is rotating over the west-limb. Flaring activity has increased. Sunspot group 03 and 04 (NOAA 0718) produced several C-flares, sunspot group 05 (NOAA 0720) has grown exponentially. There is a fifty procent chance for an M-flare. SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Jan 2005 SUNSPOT INDEX : 069 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 116 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : /// AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 016 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.oma.be. Please do not reply directly # # to this message, but send comments and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. # # If you are unable to use that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------#