:Issued: 2005 Jan 15 1223 UTC :Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50115 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Jan 2005, 1205UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Jan 2005 until 17 Jan 2005) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 016 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 030 COMMENT: A fast CME was detected by Culgoora. It comes along with the M and X-flaring activity early in the morning of Jan 15. The sunspot sources (Catania 05, 03; NOAA 0720, 0718) are located near the central meridian. We expect the CME to arrive late Jan 16, early Jan 17. Minor storm conditions are possible. Yesterday evening, both the solar wind speed and the total interplanetairy magnetic field increased (negative B_z) with short minor storm conditions as measured by Izmiran as a consequence. SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Jan 2005 SUNSPOT INDEX : 092 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 130 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : /// AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 015 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 14 1353 1411 1445 N13E14 M1.8 SF 05 0720 14 1602 1606 1614 M1.0 67 V/2 03 0718 14 1753 1757 1803 M1.5 05 0720 14 2108 2126 2139 N15E08 M1.9 2N 05 0720 15 0022 0043 0102 N11E10 X1.2 1B 97 05 0720 END BT #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.oma.be. Please do not reply directly # # to this message, but send comments and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. # # If you are unable to use that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------#