:Issued: 2005 Jul 18 1226 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50718
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Jul 2005, 1214UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Jul 2005 until 20 Jul 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jul 2005  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2005  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2005  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 034
COMMENT: A major geomagnetic storm is in progress probably linked to
the full halo CME of July 14th (~X1.2 flare). Around 20 UT yesterday the
IMF turned southward again (-10 nT), unless the low solar wind speed of
450 km/s, this causes geomagnetic storm conditions. At present the Bz is
still negative, but will soon turne positive. After this geomagnetic
contitions are expexcted to become quiet for one day. A coronal hole is
visible in the eastern hemisphere. Its influence is expected from July
20 onwards. Last rotation its passage triggered active to minor
geomagnetic storm conditions on Juny 23. A full halo CME was first
observed in C2 data at 11:30 UT on July 17th. EIT 195 images show low
coronal activity in the north-west, above the limb, probably from old
region N0AA 0786, wich turned behind the limb. We therefore believe this
halo CME is backsided.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Jul 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 012
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 074
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 031
AK WINGST           : 020
ESTIMATED AP        : 021

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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