:Issued: 2005 Jan 20 1310 UTC :Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50120 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Jan 2005, 1251UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Jan 2005 until 22 Jan 2005) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 040 PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 017 COMMENT: Late tonight, early tomorrow, we are expecting the glancing blow of the CME accompanying the X1.4 flare of Jan 19 (peaking at 08:22 UT). Minor storm conditions are possible. It is not clear yet, if there is a CME accompanying the X7.1 flare of this morning, peaking at 07:01 UT. The proton fluxes increased drastically around the peak-time of the flare. This increase was flare driven. The proton storm (all curves passed the threshold) is still in progress. SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Jan 2005 SUNSPOT INDEX : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 133 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : /// AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 057 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 19 0658 0731 0755 N19W47 M6.7 2N 5000 CTM/1,III/2 05 0720 19 0803 0822 0840 X1.3 II/2,IV/2 05 0720 full halo CME (08:22 in LASCO) 19 1019 1024 1029 N18W47 M2.7 1N III/3 0720 3th part of a triple flare 19 1532 1540 1548 N13W50 M1.6 2F 0720 20 0636 0701 0726 X7.1 05 0720 END BT #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.oma.be. Please do not reply directly # # to this message, but send comments and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. # # If you are unable to use that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------#