:Issued: 2005 Jul 28 1226 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50728
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jul 2005, 1157UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Jul 2005 until 30 Jul 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jul 2005  10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jul 2005  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jul 2005  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 029
COMMENT: Catania sunspot groups 9 and 10 (no NOAA numbering yet)
forming one big activity complex will probably remain active and produce
strong C-flares and possibly even M-flares. An M1.0 flare peaking at
00:30 UT today have been produced by this activity complex. The
associated CME, however, was only 88 degrees wide (according to CACTus
software). It is thus unlikely that the CME-produced interplanetary
disturbance will arrive to the Earth. Proton flux has surpassed the
threshold yesterday late evening. Protons were probably accelerated by
the shocks driven by recent halo CMEs. The Earth is now inside the
interaction region between the slow and faster solar wind flows. The
source of the faster flow is probably an equatorial coronal hole
currently located to the West of the central meridian. A low-latitude
extension of the northern polar coronal hole is now located at the
central meridian. We expect the fast flow from this coronal hole to come
to the Earth on July 30. A moderate geomagnetic disturbance will be thus
possible.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Jul 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 021
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 091
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 023
AK WINGST           : 019
ESTIMATED AP        : 018

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
28  0001  0030 0054 N09E90 M1.0                                             GOES-12/SXI derived location
END
BT
 
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