:Issued: 2005 Jan 22 1214 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50122
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Jan 2005, 1200UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Jan 2005 until 24 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 012
COMMENT: Tonight (Jan 21-Jan 22), the K_p went up to 8, Izmiran
measured local K-indices of 7,8,7. A shock in the L1 point was
identified at 16:48UT, Jan 21. The B_z when up to more then -20nT,
leading to this severe geomagnetic storm. Once the shock-front passed
the L1 point, the proton fluxes measured by GOES-12 showed a stronger
decrease. At the moment of writing this bulletin, only the >10MeV curve
was slightly above the threshold. The shock is possibly the passing of
the CME associated with X7.1 flare on Jan 20, peaking at 07:01. At this
moment, we return to quiet conditions. Late today, tomorrow, we expect
periods of active conditions as we come in a coronal hole wind stream.
Sunspot group 05 (NOAA 0720) turned over the westlimb. Group nr 11 (NOAA
0725) grew in size and complexity and is a possible candidate for
producing C-flares.


SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 068
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 114
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 056

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
21  1347  1355 1410        M1.2                                     04 0718                     
END
BT
 
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                          #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                                 #
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