:Issued: 2005 Jan 29 1433 UTC :Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50129 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Jan 2005, 1250UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Jan 2005 until 31 Jan 2005) SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 020 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 082 / AP: 027 PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 018 COMMENT: The solar activity is very low, with only a few B flares. The same quiet conditions should continue for the coming days, as no sunspot group on the sun is capable of producing significant flares. Since yesterday, the solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field strength have both increased, indicating that the Earth is now experiencing the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole. The N-S Bz component fluctuates down to -8nT, which already produced active geomagnetic conditions over the last 12 hours. We expect unsettled to active conditions, and at times minor storm conditions, for the next 2 or 3 days. SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Jan 2005 SUNSPOT INDEX : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 085 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : /// AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 008 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.oma.be. Please do not reply directly # # to this message, but send comments and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. # # If you are unable to use that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------#