SIDC URSIGRAM 50205 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Feb 2005, 1307UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Feb 2005 until 07 Feb 2005) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 003 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 007 COMMENT: Returning sunspot group Catania 05/NOAA 0720 is still not visible on the solar disk, but its loop system is now prominent in EIT images. The group has already produced several C-class flares, the largest a C7.1 round midnight. We expect at least C-flares from now on, with a good chance for M-flares to follow soon. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet. The solar wind speed is now at 400km/s and rapidly decreasing. A small equatorial coronal hole may push it back up later today and tomorrow. Active conditions may be reached. SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Feb 2005 SUNSPOT INDEX : 022 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 082 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : /// AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 003 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT