SIDC URSIGRAM 50208
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Feb 2005, 1218UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Feb 2005 until 10 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Past 24 hours solar activity was concentrated in active region
NOAA 0733 (no Catania number) situated in the East (~S05E85). Around
noon 7/2 it produced a long-duration flare, the accompanied CME to the
east had a speed of 500 km/s. The largest flare it produced was a C3.7
flare and erupted at 22.44 UT. We keep an eye on this active region as
it rotates on the disk. Although very active during previous rotation
and listed as beta-gamma, active region NOAA 0732 (Catania 19/20) is
very quiet. However we think C-flares are possible from this region.
Geomagnetic conditions are active to unsettled at present. Earlier than
expected we entered the high speed wind stream of the northern coronal
hole. This is probably due to its high speed: the solar wind was pushed
up to a speed of 700-750 km/s. Since it is a large coronal hole, we
expect the disturbances to last for another 24 hours. Minor storm
intervals remain possible for the next 24 hours.






SOLAR INDICES FOR 7 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 103
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 035

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT