SIDC URSIGRAM 50104
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Jan 2005, 1224UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Jan 2005 until 06 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 030
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA 0715) is decaying fast, but it still
generated several C-class flares (the largest and most recent was a C7.6). EIT
dimmings were observed, indicating the onset of CMEs. Since the sunspot group is
near the center of the disk, these CMEs are directed towards the earth and will
arrive towards the end of the week. We expect more C-class flares from this
group with a 1/3 chance for an M-flare.
The solar wind speed has increased again to more than 700 km/s, probably due to
the second coronal hole that was at the central meridian on Dec 31. The
north-south component of the IMF is oscillating round zero. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain at active levels with the possibility of a
minor storm period.


SOLAR INDICES FOR 3 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 043
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 094
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 024

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT