:Issued: 2005 Feb 18 1242 UTC :Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50218 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Feb 2005, 1237UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Feb 2005 until 20 Feb 2005) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 025 PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 022 COMMENT: A disturbance in the solar wind caused minor storm conditions (K=5) last midnight. We expect the geomagnetic activity to remain K=3 to 4 because of an coronal hole influence in the northern hemisphere. By the end of the weekend continued geomagnetic conditions are possible due to the arrival of the full halo CME of 2005/02/17 (00h06). SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Feb 2005 SUNSPOT INDEX : 096 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 111 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013 AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 008 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.oma.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#