:Issued: 2006 Jan 16 1224 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60116
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Jan 2006, 1213UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Jan 2006 until 18 Jan 2006)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2006  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2006  10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2006  10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 003
COMMENT: Catania sunspot groups 97 and 98 (NOAA ARs 0846 and 0847
respectively) are rapidly emerging. NOAA AR 0847 has produced a C1.0
flare yesterday, and there is a possibility for more C-flares to occur.
The solar wind speed is increasing as the Earth has entered into the
interaction region between the slow and fast solar wind flows. The
source of the fast flow is probably a small equatorial coronal hole now
situated in the Western hemisphere. The magnetic field in the
interaction region was mostly northward, resulting in quiet geomagnetic
conditions. We expect the geomagnetic situation to remain mostly quiet,
with possible occasional intervals of K = 4.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 027, BASED ON 02 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Jan 2006
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 036
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 081
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 011
AK WINGST              : 007
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : 020, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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