:Issued: 2006 Jan 18 0333 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60117
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Jan 2006, 1216UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Jan 2006 until 19 Jan 2006)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2006  10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2006  10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2006  10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 005
COMMENT: NOAA ARs 0846 and 0847 (Catania numbers 97 and 98
respectively) are growing. A C-flare is thus possible. The Earth is now
in the fast solar wind stream (although the speed is only around 450 km/s, 
all the other characteristic features of a fast stream are present). The source 
of this flow is probably a small equational coronal hole now situated in the 
Western hemisphere. The IMF Bz component was fluctuating, resulting in active
geomagnetic conditions (K=4 reported by Dourbes yesterday evening). Now the IMF
strength decreased down to 6 nT, so we expect the geomagnetic situation to become
quiet. 

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 022, BASED ON 02 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Jan 2006
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 084
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 024
AK WINGST              : 015
ESTIMATED AP           : 016
ESTIMATED ISN          : 029, BASED ON 03 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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