:Issued: 2006 Jan 22 1248 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60122
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Jan 2006, 1227UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Jan 2006 until 24 Jan 2006)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2006  10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2006  10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2006  10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 016
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 99, NOAA AR 0848, is continuing to grow
and to develop a more complicated configuration of the photospheric
magnetic field. We thus expect C-flares to occur in this group. An
equatorial coronal hole is now situated at the central meridian. We
expect the fast flow from it to arrive to the Earth around January
23-24, producing a geomagnetic disturbance up to the minor storm level.
The Earth is currently inside the slow solar wind flow with an average
magnetic field, so the probability for a geomagnetic disturbance in the
next 24 hours is low.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 031, BASED ON 03 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Jan 2006
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 094
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : 018, BASED ON 03 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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