:Issued: 2006 Aug 17 1305 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60817
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Aug 2006, 1455UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Aug 2006 until 19 Aug 2006)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Aug 2006  10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2006  10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2006  10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 015
COMMENT: NOAA AR 0904, Catania sunspot group 69, keeps its beta-gamma
configuration of the photopsheric magnetic field. It has produced C3.6
and C3.5 flares on August 16. A full halo CME has been observed by
SOHO/LASCO on August 16, first appearing in the C2 field of view at
16:30 UT. Its plain of the sky speed was measured to be 915 km/s. The
source region of the halo has been observed by SOHO/EIT starting at
16:24 UT: coronal dimmings and the post-eruption arcade are well visible
in the NOAA AR 0904, Catania number 69. The halo CME is associated with
the C3.6 flare peaking at 16:17 UT. Due to the CME source region
position close to the central meridian we expect the CME-associated
interplanetary disturbance to arrive to the Earth (probably on August
19), producing a geomagnetic storm. However, the asymmetric shape of the
CME (the bulk of the plasma is directed towards the south) indicates
that only the CME-driven shock might arrive and the geomagnetic storm
will be rather weak or moderate (peak Kp index 5 or 6). If, however, the
magnetic cloud arrives, we expect it to have the SWN magnetic field
configuration and to produce at least a moderate geomagnetic storm. The
solar wind speed is still low, although the interplanetary magnetic
field is slightly elevated. We thus do not expect any significant
geomagnetic disturbance in the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 018, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Aug 2006
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 041
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 086
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 006
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 003
ESTIMATED ISN          : 021, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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