:Issued: 2006 Dec 05 1402 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 61205 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Dec 2006, 1338UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Dec 2006 until 07 Dec 2006) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Dec 2006 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 005 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Dec 2006 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 026 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Dec 2006 10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 020 COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet until midway through tomorrow Dec 6th when the fast stream from the recurrent coronal hole is expected to arrive. As during previous rotations minor storming is anticipated with potential for isolated periods of major storming. Solar activity has increased dramatically over the past 24hrs as Catania group 06, thought to be old NOAA AR 0923, rotates over the SE limb. In total it has yielded some 15 C-class events, an M1.8 this morning and most recently an X9.0 flare, all attributed to S05E60 or further. EIT and LASCO imagery are not available due to SOHO manoeuvres but GOES SXI and Nancay radioheliograph data clearly show this activity. A metric Type II burst was recorded in conjunction with X-flare, with speed 836km/s. Any associated CME is expected to be too far to the E to be highly geoeffective though a glancing blow from the shock is possible. As yet there has been no increase in energetic particles, though given the distant longitude an increase would be delayed, and probably modest. The region is still too close to the limb to establish its magnetic configuration but at the time of its W limb transit 0923 was a beta-gamma group, and magnetograph images show the new reagion to be significantly larger. Further C-class events are expected while M-class flares are likely and isolated X-class flares possible. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 025, BASED ON 04 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Dec 2006 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 038 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 092 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 003 AK WINGST : 001 ESTIMATED AP : 001 ESTIMATED ISN : 024, BASED ON 09 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 05 0745 0803 0806 S05E71 M1.8 No LASCO or EIT images, no protons 05 1018 1035 1045 S06E59 X9.0 II, IV No LASCO or EIT images; no protons; Type II speed 836 km/s END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu. # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#