:Issued: 2006 Dec 15 1402 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 61215
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Dec 2006, 1349UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Dec 2006 until 17 Dec 2006)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2006  10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 051
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2006  10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 075
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2006  10CM FLUX: 085 / AP: 038
COMMENT: Yesterday, around 14:00UT, a shock arrived at earth. The shock
was clearly visible in both SOHO/CELIAS and ACE data. The arrival
triggered a major geomagnetic storm which is still ongoing. Another
class X1.5 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2006/12/14 peaking at 22:14 UT.
A CME was associated with the event. The EIT wave gives the evidence for
this conclusion. The proton flux was pushed up again. The >10MeV curve
is at the moment slightly above the threshold. When the CME arrives at
eath, a severe storm is possible. We expect the arrival mid Dec 16.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 015, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Dec 2006
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 093
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 074
AK WINGST              : 045
ESTIMATED AP           : 052
ESTIMATED ISN          : 015, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
14  2107  2215 2226 S05W31 X1.5 SF   620 II/2                       06 0930 proton event, associated CME
END
BT
 
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