:Issued: 2007 May 19 1311 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 70519
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 May 2007, 1258UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 May 2007 until 21 May 2007)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 May 2007  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 May 2007  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 May 2007  10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 018
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be predominantly
unsettled to active while the influence of the fast stream from the
coronal hole persists. Several periods of K=4 were recorded at Dourbes
and Niemegk along with Kp=4 yesterday. The solar wind speed is currently
steady at ~600km/s and whilst the IMF in relatively weak and mainly
northwards, only modest intervals of negative Bz are need for further
disturbances. Solar activity is expected to be mainly quiet with
potential for eruptive conditions, with NOAA AR 0956 capable of yielding
C-class events, and possibly larger.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 025, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 May 2007
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 036
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 076
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 024
AK WINGST              : 023
ESTIMATED AP           : 020
ESTIMATED ISN          : 029, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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