:Issued: 2009 Oct 22 1418 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 91022
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Oct 2009, 1407UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Oct 2009 until 24 Oct 2009)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2009  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2009  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2009  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 001
COMMENT: A shock was observed in the ACE solar wind around midnight
21/22 october. The solar wind speed jumped up from 280 to 340 km/s and
the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward
for about 10hours. The consequence of that is an ongoing geomagnetic
storm of Kp=4 magnitude. This shock can be traced back to the
eruption/EIT wave observed near central meridian on Oct 17, 19h00. We
predicted this geomagnetic storm in the daily forecasts of Oct 18 and
Oct 19 but later believed it would no longer reach the Earth. However
the low speed (~340 km/s) of the event is compatible with ~5 days travel
time from the Sun to the Earth.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Oct 2009
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : ///
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : ///
AK WINGST              : 002
ESTIMATED AP           : 002
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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