:Issued: 2010 Feb 07 1237 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 00207 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Feb 2010, 1219UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 07 Feb 2010 until 09 Feb 2010) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Feb 2010 10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Feb 2010 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Feb 2010 10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 024 COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to reach active levels with risks of M-class flares from NOAA AR 1045. This region, located at N20E09, produced a M6.4 flare on Feb. 7th, peaking at 02:34 UT. A halo CME was observed, linked to this event. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet during the next 24 hours. There is then a risk of increased activity, possibly up to isolated minor storm conditions on Feb. 9th due to the halo CME previously mentioned. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 031, BASED ON 02 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 6 Feb 2010 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 033 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 088 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : /// AK WINGST : 007 ESTIMATED AP : 006 ESTIMATED ISN : 023, BASED ON 10 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 06 1847 1859 1909 N21E17 M2.9 SN III/1 40 1045 06 2131 2137 2142 N21E17 M1.3 III/1 40 1045 07 0220 0234 0239 N21E10 M6.4 1N 170 IV/2,III/2 40 1045 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#