:Issued: 2010 Feb 09 1352 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 00209 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Feb 2010, 1340UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Feb 2010 until 11 Feb 2010) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Feb 2010 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Feb 2010 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 026 PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Feb 2010 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 017 COMMENT: The radiation level of NOAA AR 1045 (Catania 40) has decreased a little. Today, only C-flares occurred. We expect the CME associated with the M6.4 flare of Feb 07, peaking at 02:39UT to arrive late this evening, early tomorrow. A second CME associated with the flaring activity on Feb 08, will arrive one day later. Minor storm conditions are possible. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 036, BASED ON 05 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 8 Feb 2010 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 067 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 094 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : /// AK WINGST : 005 ESTIMATED AP : 004 ESTIMATED ISN : 036, BASED ON 14 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 08 0736 0743 0746 N26E05 M4.0 150 III/2 40 1045 location based on EIT 08 1157 1203 1206 N21W07 M1.1 40 1045 location based on EIT 08 1332 1347 1350 M2.0 40 1045 08 2101 2123 2128 N23W12 M1.0 SN III/1 40 1045 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#