:Issued: 2010 Apr 02 1342 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 00402
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Apr 2010, 1252UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Apr 2010 until 04 Apr 2010)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Apr 2010  10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Apr 2010  10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Apr 2010  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 003
COMMENT: Two sunspot groups on the solar disc (Catania numbers 54 and
56, NOAA ARs 1057 and 1059 respectively) are unlikely to produce a
C-flare due to low X-ray background flux and its slow variability. An
interplanetary shock wave was detected by ACE and SOHO/CELIAS at 06:45
UT today. The solar source of this shock is probably a CME first
detected by LASCO C2 at 03:08 UT on March 30. The angular extent of the
CME was around 110 degrees. It was accelerating to reach the speed of
around 350 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of view. The CME originated from
the eruption in the Catania sunspot group 56 (NOAA AR 1059) at S15E40
that was not associated with any reported flare. However, coronal
dimmings and post-eruption loops were observed by SECCHI/EUVI onboard
STEREO B starting from around 03:00 UT. Due to the position of the
erupting active region away from solar central meridian and non-halo
appearance of the CME, we believe that the ICME itself will probably
miss the Earth. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude
reached 7 nT in the post-shock sheath. The IMF north-south component was
fluctuating, so the K index reached only 3 (as reported by IZMIRAN and
NOAA) The solar wind speed and the IMF magnitude are currently back at
average levels for the slow solar wind (460 km/s and 5 nT respectively).
We thus do not expect any further geomagnetic disturbance in the coming
hours. Catania sunspot group 56 (NOAA AR 1059) is currently situated
close to the solar central meridian, so any CME originating from this
group may arrive to the Earth with possible geomagnetic consequences.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 018, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 1 Apr 2010
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 026
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 079
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : ///
AK WINGST              : 012
ESTIMATED AP           : 013
ESTIMATED ISN          : 017, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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