:Issued: 2012 Jan 28 1228 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 20128 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jan 2012, 1212UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Jan 2012 until 30 Jan 2012) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 123 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 012 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 007 COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be eruptive with C class flares likely from NOAA AR 1402. There remains a risk for a M flare from this AR. AR 1402 produced an X1.7 flare on Jan. 27, peaking at 1837UT, accompanied by a fast halo CME and a proton event still in progress (10 and 50 MeV protons). The 100 MeV proton flux briefly crossed the 10 pfu threshold late on Jan. 27. Due to the position of the AR close to the west limb, it expected that the CME will not trigger any significant geomagnetic disturbance. Therefore we forecast mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours, with some isolated periods of unsettled conditions on Jan. 28 due to a coronal hole at a geoffective position. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 032, BASED ON 04 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Jan 2012 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 095 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 142 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 011 AK WINGST : 006 ESTIMATED AP : 007 ESTIMATED ISN : 042, BASED ON 26 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 27 1737 1837 1856 N27W71 X1.7 1F 810 II/3,IV/2 21 1402 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#