:Issued: 2012 Jan 03 1246 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20103
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Jan 2012, 1224UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Jan 2012 until 05 Jan 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity in the past 24 hours was limited to a C2.4
flare peaking at 15:24 UT, which originated from behind the western
limb. More C flares are likely to occur within the next 24 hours, with a
very slight chance for an M flare. The C2.4 flare was accompanied by a
CME first detected by COR2 A on January 2, 15:42 UT. Based on LASCO,
COR2 A and B images, this CME is not expected to be geo-effective.
ACE solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/s on January 2, 14h UT
to about 450 km/s on January 3, 4h UT. The IMF increased from about 5 to
15 nT in the same period. This is probably the effect of a coronal hole
high speed wind stream. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet and will
likely be quiet to active on January 3 and 4 due to the effects of the
coronal hole high speed wind stream. Quiet conditions are predicted for
January 5.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 074, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 2 Jan 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 111
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 135
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 016
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : 063, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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