SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 Mar 28 1234 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40328
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Mar 2024, 1233UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Mar 2024  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2024  10CM FLUX: 166 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2024  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 008

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was moderate
with one M-class flare recorded. The largest flare of the period was an
M7.1 flare with peak time 06:29 UTC March 28. This flare originated from
Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which is the largest and most complex
region on disk (Beta-Gamma-Delta) but has begun to decay slightly. This
region also produced much of the C-class flaring activity. Catania region
30 and 32 (NOAA ARs 3623 and 3622) decayed into plage regions The remaining
regions on disk are simple and were either stable or in decay. The solar
flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24
hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low
probability for an X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronal holes: Two small positive polarity coronal holes one near the
equator and one in the southern hemisphere began to cross the central
meridian on March 27.

Solar wind: The solar wind speed gradually decreased from values around 500
km/s to around 420 km/s due to the waning influence of the ICME which
arrived on March 24. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 and
5 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -2 nT.  The
interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive
sector. The solar wind speed is expected to reflect slow solar wind
conditions on March 28 and 29, enhancements due to the solar wind
associated with the positive coronal holes may be expected from March 30.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 and
Local K Bel 2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to
unsettled levels on March 28 to March 30.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was still slightly enhanced but remained below the 10pfu
threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease and remain
below 10 Mev threshold over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below
the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to exceed
this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at
nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to increase to normal to
moderate levels over the next day.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 097, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Mar 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 175
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : 006
ESTIMATED AP           : 006
ESTIMATED ISN          : 115, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
28  0616  0629 0636 S16W55 M7.1 1N       22/3615      
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.