SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 Dec 15 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 71215
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Dec 2017, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Dec 2017 until 17 Dec 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 019
COMMENT: The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for
a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth-directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic
imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.
In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR further decreased
from about 420 to about 350 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
was directed away from the Sun and its magnitude ranged between about 2 and
6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. A high speed stream from a recurrent
positive equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive in the second half
of December 15 or early on December 16. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K
Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) were registered in the
past 24 hours. Active to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes  4 or 5) are
possible on December 15, 16 and 17, with a slight chance for moderate
geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6), due to the expected arrival of
a high speed stream from a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Dec 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 000
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 072
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 005
AK WINGST              : 005
ESTIMATED AP           : 004
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.