SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2018 Dec 16 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 81216
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Dec 2018, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Dec 2018 until 18 Dec 2018)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2018  10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2018  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2018  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 001
COMMENT: NOAA 2731 produced a B1.0 flare in the past 24 hours, and has
decayed to an alpha region. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours
is estimated at 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about
300 and 350 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its magnitude varied
between about 0 and 4 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. A weak solar wind
stream associated with a negative polarity, equatorial-South polar coronal
hole may arrive near Earth on December 16.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 1; NOAA Kp between 0
and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. There is a chance for active
intervals (K Dourbes = 4) on December 16 and 17, related to the possible
arrival of a weak solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity,
equatorial-South polar coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels
(K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 18.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Dec 2018
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 071
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 005
AK WINGST              : 001
ESTIMATED AP           : 001
ESTIMATED ISN          : 007, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

UMAGF 30503 81216 1004/ 15060 1/005 20011 31110
UMAGF 31523 81216 0000/ 15004 1/001 21000 30011
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.