SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2019 Mar 24 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 90324
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Mar 2019, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 24 Mar 2019 until 26 Mar 2019)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Mar 2019  10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Mar 2019  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Mar 2019  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 007
COMMENT: NOAA AR 2736 has decreased in size and complexity (it has now beta
magnetic field configuration) and did not produce anymore C-class flares in
the past 24 h. It did produce many B-class flares, including a B9.9 peaking
at 23:59 UT on March 23. The region is now rotating over the west limb,
C-class flares remain possible but less likely.

No Earth directed CMEs in past 24 h. Solar protons have remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is 265 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of 3
nT. The CME from March 20, expected to arrive yesterday (with 50%
probability) has not done so yet. It may have been slowed down by the very
slow solar wind that we are seeing now (in that case it could arrive
today), or it may have missed the Earth. The fast solar wind emanating from
a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole may affect the Earth in 48 h.
Quiet conditions were observed in the past hours,  the situation will
change only if the CME arrives, in that case  K up to 5 can be expected.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 017, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 23 Mar 2019
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 079
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 003
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : 002
ESTIMATED ISN          : 026, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

UMAGF 30503 90324 1004/ 23065 1/003 20110 30000
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.