GEOALERT SIDC
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
Frequency | Daily |
Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
Mail header | GEOALERT SIDC |
SIDC code | xut |
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 Apr 19 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU110 UGEOA 30512 40419 1230/ 9930/ 12192 21192 30192 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Apr 2024 10CM FLUX: 220 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Apr 2024 10CM FLUX: 216 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Apr 2024 10CM FLUX: 210 / AP: 022 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at moderate level, with multiple C-class flares and three M-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an M2.1 flare, peaking at 04:53 UTC on Apr 19, associated with NOAA AR 3647 (beta-delta class). This region was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with NOAA AR 3645 (beta class). Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3635 (beta class) and NOAA AR 3639 (beta-gamma class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible and a chance for X-class flare. Coronal mass ejections: Multiple CMEs, directed towards south-east from the Earth's perspective, were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 starting from approximately 17:16 on Apr 17, likely related to the flaring activity from NOAA AR 3638 and 3643. While bulk of the CME is off the Sun-Earth line, a glancing blow from these CMEs could be possible on Apr 21 - 22, although with low confidence. Solar wind: At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters were reflecting return to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from the values about 360 km/s to 310 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field was below 5 nT. The solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed from around 04:12 UTC on April 19, with the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching the values up to 16 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -12 nT and 5 nT. This is probably associated with the arrival of a faint partial halo CME observed on Apr 15. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated due to the ICME passage with a chance of a further weak enhancement late on Apr 20 - Apr 21 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central meridian on Apr 17 and a possible ICMEs arrival. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active globally (NOAA-Kp=1-4). Locally only quiet to unsettled(K-Bel=2-3) conditions were observed over Belgium. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a chance of reaching minor storm levels due to ongoing ICME influence and expected HSS arrival. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so with possible enhancements in case of increased levels of solar activity over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 245, BASED ON 11 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 40419 1230/ 18/// 10225 22270 3004/ 4//// 81013 91050 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 18 1922 2001 2012 S12E17 M1.6 SF 60/3645 III/1 18 2012 2016 2021 S12E17 M1.6 SF ///3647 III/1 19 0440 0453 0503 N20W58 M2.1 SF 60/3647 VI/1III/1 END UGEOR 30512 40419 1230/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 32404 17093 19022 18006 37008 21302 21020 46027 31503 22000 43722 0/101 23005 20521 21304 24001 22212 11304 25002 22417 01207 26002 41911 21403 27015 13129 27516 28011 23812 34620 30004 17013 21402 31003 22908 31406 32002 17122 21302 USSPS 21305 17161 24432 21014 37205 2/805 24050 46227 51405 29001 44022 0/103 30008 30020 2/802 33001 21714 0/105 34002 22217 01212 35035 13028 37425 32005 42213 21304 38014 23712 34417 39016 16813 2/802 41014 23010 34439 40003 16521 01205 USSPS 31405 17070 25132 49004 36709 21302 50031 46027 44407 51001 43422 01202 53010 20721 21306 54001 36805 01203 55001 42617 0/102 56004 41712 24407 57001 10118 01202 58002 22313 12305 59004 22617 15406 60005 23009 25407 61021 13328 35516 62016 24113 25521 63003 17011 2/801 64002 17221 11303 65003 17514 2/801 UMAGF 30503 40419 1004/ 18060 1/009 21211 31212 UMAGF 31523 40419 0000/ 18003 1/004 22101 31112 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The Geoalert message starts with the code GEOALERT BRUXXX, where xxx is the day-of-the-year number.Besides the ISES codes like UGEOA, UGEOI, UGEOR and USSPS, this message contains the following information:
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
99999
This gives the predicted 10.7 cm radioflux and the predicted Ap index for 3 days starting on the date of the message
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
This is the header of a table that lists all major events.
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.