New prediction method

  • Posted on: 24 March 2017
  • By: Admin

Starting from a collaboration with the NCEI (NOAA, Boulder USA), we implemented new 12-month ahead predictions based on the McNish and Lincoln method. This rather simple method is based on a single mean cycle profile and is thus of "climatology" type. It was used as a standard for many years at NOAA, and we now add it to our other more advanced Standard Curves and Combined methods, allowing direct comparisons. Likewise, we now also provide a Kalman-filter optimized version of these new ML predictions.
On this occasion, we slightly modified our data section: graphics and predictions can now be found in the new "Products" section, which gathers all data products derived from our primary sunspot number series, including our monthly sunspot bulletins.