SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 May 2012 until 25 May 2012)

SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 May 2012  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 May 2012  10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 May 2012  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 39 (NOAA AR 1484) produced a C1.2 flare
peaking at 00:27 UT today. More C-class flares can be expected from this
group, as well as from recently emerged Catania sunspot group 47 (NOAA
AR 1488). The post-shock solar wind flow was followed by a fast solar
wind stream (with the speed reaching 700 km/s) from a small low-latitude
coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. Due to high interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) magnitude (that reached 15 nT), active geomagnetic
conditions (K = 4) were reported by Dourbes and IZMIRAN and minor storm
conditions (K = 5) were reported by NOAA. Currently the solar wind speed
is still elevated (around 620 km/s), but the IMF magnitude decreased to
average values (around 4 nT). We therefore expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 055, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 May 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 114
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 121
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 029
AK WINGST              : 025
ESTIMATED AP           : 024
ESTIMATED ISN          : 055, BASED ON 30 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END