SIDC Ursigram

3-day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity: Latest Issue and Archive

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2017 Sep 23 12:29:32

Over the past 24 hours the solar activity was very low, only a small
B-class flare was recorded. Catania sunspot groups 56 (NOAA active regions
2681) remained stable showing no flaring activity. Catania sunspot group 55
(NOAA active region 2680) is currently turning over the west solar limb.
The top of the loops from the returning region Catania sunspot group 46
(NOAA active region 2673), from which a B3.0-class flare (Sept 23 at 06:03
UT) is attributed, is now visible at the east solar limb. We expect the
solar activity to increase due to this returning region with C-class
flares. As this region was very active with several X-class flares during
the previous solar rotation, we cannot exclude the possibility of M to
X-class flares to occur. Once the foot-points of the loops will be visible,
a better estimation of its magnetic complexity will be made and we will be
able to better estimate the probability of flaring activity.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained at
background level over the past 24 hours.
The Earth remained inside a slow solar wind flow with de speed lower than
400 Km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 6 nT
and the Bz component fluctuated between -4 and 4 nT being mainly negative.
The associated fast solar wind to the small equatorial coronal hole that
has crossed the central meridian on Sept 20 is expected to arrive at Earth
today around midnight UT time.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled with Kp (NOAA) and
local K (Dourbes) indexes ranging between 1-2 and 0-3 respectively. While
the solar wind remained in its nominal condition, the local K (Dourbs)
sowed an unexpected short duration maximum (K=4) at 22:00 UT due to the Bz
components being mostly negative. The geomagnetic conditions are expected
to remain quiet to unsettled until Sept 23 when the fast solar will reach
Earth.

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