The global geomagnetic conditions have escalated to moderate storm levels (NOAA Kp 6+ ) between 00:00 and 03:00 UTC on May 17 and are currently at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3). The geomagnetic conditions locally have reached active conditions (K BEL 4) between 00:00 and 08:00 UTC on May 17. The geomagnetic storm was most likely the result of a glancing blow arrival, associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) observed around 23:00 UTC on May 12. Further minor to moderate storm conditions are possible in the upcoming hours.

A class M7.7 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2025/05/14 with peak time 11:18UT

A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics: t0 | dt0| pa | da | v | dv | minv| maxv| 2025-05-13T15:00:07.592 | 6.999722222222222 | 43 | 160 | 257 | 51 | 149 | 343 t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff dt0: duration of liftoff (hours) pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees) da: angular width of the CME (degrees), v: median velocity (km/s) dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C2.2 flare (SIDC Flare 4409) peaking at 20:00 UTC on May 17, from beyond the west limb. There are currently four numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 496 (NOAA Active Region 4087, magnetic type beta-delta). SIDC Sunspot Group 500 (NOAA Active Region 4091, magnetic type beta) has emerged in the southeast quadrant, west of SIDC Sunspot Group (NOAA Active Region 4090). SIDC Sunspot Group 498 has decayed into plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely and a small chance for M-class flares. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours. An elongated, mid-latitude, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 104) continues to cross the central meridian since May 15. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached active levels (NOAA Kp 4+ ) between 06:00 UTC and 09:00 UTC on May 18. Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at unsettled to active levels (K BEL 3 to 4). Active conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, under the continuous influence of the high-speed stream from the elongated, mid-latitude, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 104). The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) were enhanced over the last 24 hours, likely due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from the elongated, mid-latitude, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 104). Speed values increased up to 700 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were between 6 nT and 19 nT. The Bz component varied between -14 nT and 13 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was mostly in the positive sector. Further enhancements in the solar wind conditions may be expected over the next 24 hours, under the continuous influence of the high-speed stream from the elongated, mid-latitude, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 104).