OTERIA Flare Predictor Tool 3.0

Click on any of the colored symbols on the map to retrieve flare detection/prediction information. More information below.

3008 3011 3013 3018 3005 3001 3004

3007
Alpha

3007

• Area = 2
• Z = Hsx
• N = 1
• L = 2

3010
Beta

3010

• Area = 5
• Z = Cro
• N = 9
• L = 10

3014
Beta-Gamma-Delta

3014

• Area = 119
• Z = Dkc
• N = 12
• L = 10

3015
Beta

3015

• Area = 2
• Z = Cso
• N = 2
• L = 1

3016
Beta

3016

• Area = 7
• Z = Dao
• N = 5
• L = 9

3017
Beta

3017

• Area = 3
• Z = Cro
• N = 6
• L = 6

3019
Alpha

3019

• Area = 2
• Z = Cro
• N = 4
• L = 2

2

2

• Area = 2
• Zurich = C
• Penumbra = small symmetric (s) north to south diameter < 2.5
• Leading = 1
• NN = 3

11

11

• Area = 4
• Zurich = C
• Penumbra = rudimentary (r)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 13

13

13

• Area = 4
• Zurich = C
• Penumbra = small symmetric (s) north to south diameter < 2.5
• Leading = 1
• NN = 6

14

14

• Area = 119
• Zurich = E
• Penumbra = large asymmetric (k) north to south diameter > 2.5
• Leading = 8
• NN = 30

15

15

• Area = 6
• Zurich = C
• Penumbra = rudimentary (r)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 18

16

16

• Area = 6
• Zurich = D
• Penumbra = small symmetric (s) north to south diameter < 2.5
• Leading = 4
• NN = 8

17

17

• Area = 1
• Zurich = A
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading =
• NN = 1

18

18

• Area = 1
• Zurich = A
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading =
• NN = 1

19

19

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 2

2

2

• Area = 2
• Zurich = C
• Penumbra = small symmetric (s) north to south diameter < 2.5
• Leading = 1
• NN = 3

11

11

• Area = 4
• Zurich = C
• Penumbra = rudimentary (r)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 13

13

13

• Area = 4
• Zurich = C
• Penumbra = small symmetric (s) north to south diameter < 2.5
• Leading = 1
• NN = 6

14

14

• Area = 119
• Zurich = E
• Penumbra = large asymmetric (k) north to south diameter > 2.5
• Leading = 8
• NN = 30

15

15

• Area = 6
• Zurich = C
• Penumbra = rudimentary (r)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 18

16

16

• Area = 6
• Zurich = D
• Penumbra = small symmetric (s) north to south diameter < 2.5
• Leading = 4
• NN = 8

17

17

• Area = 1
• Zurich = A
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading =
• NN = 1

18

18

• Area = 1
• Zurich = A
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading =
• NN = 1

19

19

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 2

Catania sunspot groups
2022-05-20 07:00:00

NOAA AR/sunspot

NOAA Halpha plage

NOAA expected region

2022-05-21 00:30:00

PROBA2/SWAP 17.4nm
2022-05-21T02:19:47.256

How to use?

Click on any of the colored symbols on the map to retrieve flare detection/prediction information.

• Blue numbers refer to Catania sunspot groups. Put your mouse over it to bring a pop-up window that displays the sunspot group characteristics (area in tens of millionth of the solar hemisphere, Z= sunspot group classification, N=number of spots). Clicking on the green number will bring you to dedicated page that shows you the history plot of this sunspot group and its flaring probabilities (in %) for C, M and X flares based on the McIntosh scheme. Past flares are showing as blue spikes of magnitude scaled in the respective C, M and X class.
• Cyan numbers refer to NOAA active regions. Put your mouse over it to bring a pop-up window that displays the characteristics of the NOAA active region (same as above plus L = longitudinal extend). Clicking on the red number will bring you to the Solar Monitor page for this active region.
• Yellow numbers refer to NOAA halpha plages. Clicking on them brings you to Big Bear Solar Observatory.
• Red numbers refer to NOAA returning regions on the East limb.
• Blue/green Arrows point from the location where the group/region was observed to the location where we expect the group/region to be at the time of observation of the underlying SWAP image.

What is new in Ver 3.0 (2012-12-06)

• Adaptation to the internal changes of the database
• Better quality of swap image
• Extra images AIA/HMI
• Go back in time

What is new in Ver 2.0 (2011-03-17)

• when clicking on the green numbers now brings you to dedicated page with full explanation of the graph.

What is new in Ver 1.1 (2010-12-14)

• the formatting of the observation date of Catania and NOAA is now ISO 8601 compliant
• SWAP images that are underexposed, off-pointed or LED-powered are not used.
• bug corrected for 1-digit months

Acknowledgments

	The SOTERIA project in general, and the present tool in particular (deliverable 5.1), thankfully acknowledge support from the EU Framework 7 Programme.
	Catania sunspot group information is received from Catania Astrophysical Observatory through the ISES network
	SWAP is a project of the Centre Spatial de Liege and the Royal Observatory of Belgium funded by the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO)