OTERIA Flare Predictor Tool 3.0

Click on any of the colored symbols on the map to retrieve flare detection/prediction information. More information below.

3015 3018

3010
Beta

3010

• Area = 1
• Z = Bxo
• N = 3
• L = 6

3011
Beta

3011

• Area = 2
• Z = Cro
• N = 3
• L = 3

3014
Beta-Delta

3014

• Area = 80
• Z = Ekc
• N = 18
• L = 13

3016
Beta

3016

• Area = 1
• Z = Bxo
• N = 4
• L = 7

3017
Beta-Gamma

3017

• Area = 13
• Z = Dai
• N = 13
• L = 10

3019
Beta

3019

• Area = 1
• Z = Bxo
• N = 4
• L = 4

3020
Alpha

3020

• Area = 4
• Z = Hsx
• N = 1
• L = 1

3021
Beta

3021

• Area = 3
• Z = Dro
• N = 6
• L = 6

11

11

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 2

14

14

• Area = 52
• Zurich = E
• Penumbra = large asymmetric (k) north to south diameter > 2.5
• Leading = 6
• NN = 22

15

15

• Area = 13
• Zurich = E
• Penumbra = small symmetric (s) north to south diameter < 2.5
• Leading = 4
• NN = 16

16

16

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 3

18

18

• Area = 5
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 17

20

20

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 2

21

21

• Area = 2
• Zurich = C
• Penumbra = rudimentary (r)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 2

22

22

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 2

23

23

• Area = 2
• Zurich = H
• Penumbra = small symmetric (s) north to south diameter < 2.5
• Leading =
• NN = 1

24

24

• Area = 5
• Zurich = D
• Penumbra = rudimentary (r)
• Leading = 4
• NN = 7

25

25

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 3

26

26

• Area = 1
• Zurich = H
• Penumbra = rudimentary (r)
• Leading =
• NN = 1

11

11

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 2

14

14

• Area = 52
• Zurich = E
• Penumbra = large asymmetric (k) north to south diameter > 2.5
• Leading = 6
• NN = 22

15

15

• Area = 13
• Zurich = E
• Penumbra = small symmetric (s) north to south diameter < 2.5
• Leading = 4
• NN = 16

16

16

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 3

18

18

• Area = 5
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 17

20

20

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 2

21

21

• Area = 2
• Zurich = C
• Penumbra = rudimentary (r)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 2

22

22

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 2

23

23

• Area = 2
• Zurich = H
• Penumbra = small symmetric (s) north to south diameter < 2.5
• Leading =
• NN = 1

24

24

• Area = 5
• Zurich = D
• Penumbra = rudimentary (r)
• Leading = 4
• NN = 7

25

25

• Area = 1
• Zurich = B
• Penumbra = no penumbra (Zurich class A or B)
• Leading = 1
• NN = 3

26

26

• Area = 1
• Zurich = H
• Penumbra = rudimentary (r)
• Leading =
• NN = 1

Catania sunspot groups
2022-05-24 07:00:00

NOAA AR/sunspot

NOAA Halpha plage

NOAA expected region

2022-05-24 00:30:00

PROBA2/SWAP 17.4nm
2022-05-24T02:21:01.823

How to use?

Click on any of the colored symbols on the map to retrieve flare detection/prediction information.

• Blue numbers refer to Catania sunspot groups. Put your mouse over it to bring a pop-up window that displays the sunspot group characteristics (area in tens of millionth of the solar hemisphere, Z= sunspot group classification, N=number of spots). Clicking on the green number will bring you to dedicated page that shows you the history plot of this sunspot group and its flaring probabilities (in %) for C, M and X flares based on the McIntosh scheme. Past flares are showing as blue spikes of magnitude scaled in the respective C, M and X class.
• Cyan numbers refer to NOAA active regions. Put your mouse over it to bring a pop-up window that displays the characteristics of the NOAA active region (same as above plus L = longitudinal extend). Clicking on the red number will bring you to the Solar Monitor page for this active region.
• Yellow numbers refer to NOAA halpha plages. Clicking on them brings you to Big Bear Solar Observatory.
• Red numbers refer to NOAA returning regions on the East limb.
• Blue/green Arrows point from the location where the group/region was observed to the location where we expect the group/region to be at the time of observation of the underlying SWAP image.

What is new in Ver 3.0 (2012-12-06)

• Adaptation to the internal changes of the database
• Better quality of swap image
• Extra images AIA/HMI
• Go back in time

What is new in Ver 2.0 (2011-03-17)

• when clicking on the green numbers now brings you to dedicated page with full explanation of the graph.

What is new in Ver 1.1 (2010-12-14)

• the formatting of the observation date of Catania and NOAA is now ISO 8601 compliant
• SWAP images that are underexposed, off-pointed or LED-powered are not used.
• bug corrected for 1-digit months

Acknowledgments

	The SOTERIA project in general, and the present tool in particular (deliverable 5.1), thankfully acknowledge support from the EU Framework 7 Programme.
	Catania sunspot group information is received from Catania Astrophysical Observatory through the ISES network
	SWAP is a project of the Centre Spatial de Liege and the Royal Observatory of Belgium funded by the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO)