:Issued: 2025 Mar 15 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50315 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Mar 2025, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Mar 2025 10CM FLUX: 185 / AP: 018 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Mar 2025 10CM FLUX: 185 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Mar 2025 10CM FLUX: 185 / AP: 017 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3844) peaking on March 14 at 22:21 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 437 (NOAA Active Region 4030). A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 428 (NOAA Active Region 4019) has the most complex magnetic configuration (Beta-Delta) and was decreasing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Solar wind: Earth continued to be under the influence of high speed streams (HSS). The solar wind speed was around 560 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was between 8 nT and 5 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally unsettled to active (KP4) in the past 24 hours. Unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the time during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain above the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 161, BASED ON 09 STATIONS. 99999 SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Mar 2025 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 221 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 180 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 031 AK WINGST : 022 ESTIMATED AP : 025 ESTIMATED ISN : 173, BASED ON 17 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 14 2218 2221 2232 ////// M1.1 ///4030 END UMAGF 30503 50315 1004/ 14066 1/031 22333 33443 UMAGF 31523 50315 0000/ 14000 1/022 25333 33434 BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#