:Issued: 2025 Nov 14 1240 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU318 UGEOA 30512 51114 1240/ 9930/ 12142 20142 37142 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2025 10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 004 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with an X4.1 flare (SIDC flare 6063) observed on 14 Nov at 08:30 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 687 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4274, Beta- Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration) produced the said flare together with the majority of the flaring activity. SIDC SG 689 (NOAA AR 4276, Beta magnetic configuration) produced the rest of the C-class flaring activity. In the next 24 hours isolated M-class flares are likely to occur from SIDC SG 687 and there is a small chance of another X-class flare from the same SG/AR. Coronal mass ejections: SIDC flare 6063 (an X4.1 flare emitted on 14 Nov at 08:30 UTC) has caused a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that can potentially impact Earth. However, there are not yet enough observations available for a meaningful forecast. More information will be provided in the next Ursigram. Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) first reached the central meridian on November 13. It is expected to produce a High Speed Stream (HSS) that will become geo- effective on 17 Nov. Solar wind: During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions moved towards a slow SW regime. The SW speed dropped from a peak at 880 km/s to 580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) also dropped, from a peak of 11 nT to 4 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -3 nT and 9 nT at the second half of 13 Nov, but now registers values around 5 nT. For the next 24 hours the SW conditions are expected to reach slow SW levels. Geomagnetism: The global geomagnetic conditions were at the minor storm level (NOAA Kp 5) on 13 Nov from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC. For the rest of the past 24 hours they fluctuated between quiet and active conditions (NOAA Kp 1- to 4). The local geomagnetic conditions were also varying between quiet and active levels (K BEL 1 to 4) but did not register stormy conditions at any interval. For the next 24 hours both the global and local geomagnetic conditions are expected to range between quiet and unsettled levels. Proton flux levels: During the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, dropped bellow the 10 pfu threshold level on 13 Nov at 15:00 UTC. However, SIDC flare 6063 (an X4.1 flare) cause another proton even and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded again the 10 pfu alert threshold on 14 Nov 09:20 UTC. The new proton event is relatively weak hence the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is not expected to increase much further in the next 24 hours, rather stay close to the 10 pfu level. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 was below but close to the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase in the next 24 hours and possibly cross the alert threshold. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at moderate levels in the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 091, BASED ON 04 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 51114 1240/ 13/// 10137 21560 3039/ 4//// 80409 90940 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 14 0744 0830 0840 ////// X4.0 /////// III/2II/3IV/2 END UGEOR 30512 51114 1240/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 31405 14101 11832 89045 46724 58514 90004 46907 2/801 92007 33405 21305 93004 33716 22303 94001 38414 0/102 95001 32619 01204 96003 30113 22304 97002 21807 11305 USSPS 32404 12073 15232 75078 44225 57535 76002 44207 21304 78007 30517 24515 79006 30506 24411 80001 22812 2/801 81003 24508 21304 82000 22407 0/101 83002 35714 2/801 USSPS 21305 12157 14632 53093 44825 57520 55012 44008 5/801 59003 35714 21303 58015 30807 54412 57008 31415 31307 66003 30518 21314 60002 22213 1/801 65004 24208 31408 USSPS 81202 13001 12932 51079 45125 57523 53006 45008 2/801 54004 31916 21305 56007 31606 24407 57002 21912 2/801 59003 23608 21405 58001 36515 0/101 60002 30820 11306 UMAGF 30503 51114 1004/ 13067 1/036 26343 33011 UMAGF 31523 51114 0000/ 13001 1/039 26663 34331 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#