:Issued: 2025 Jan 13 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU013 UGEOA 30512 50113 1230/ 9930/ 11132 21132 30132 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jan 2025 10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2025 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2025 10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 007 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C8.1-flare, with peak time 02:15 UTC on Jan 13 2025, from SIDC Sunspot Group 360 NOAA AR 3947 (beta-gamma). There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA AR 3947) is the most complex AR (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and X-class flares unlikely. Coronal mass ejections: No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Coronal holes: A large east-west elongated negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) started crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Jan 16. Solar wind: The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 420 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field has slightly risen to 13 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -8 nT. Enhancements of the solar wind speed are expected in the next 24h, due to the potential arrival of the high-speed stream (HSS) associated with the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on 11 Jan 2025. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet over the past 24 hours, with an isolated active period in the beginning of Jan 13 2025, (NOAA Kp 4 and local K Belgium 4). Quiet to active conditions with possible isolated minor geomagnetic storm levels are expected for January 14. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, even if an increase was observed in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 087, BASED ON 14 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 50113 1230/ 12/// 1//// 21580 3007/ 4//// 8//// 9//// 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END UGEOR 30512 50113 1230/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 32404 11082 09522 04015 44210 41611 05000 47214 0/101 07001 32418 2/802 13004 45220 21405 14000 36032 0/101 15007 12007 31404 16000 24308 0/101 USSPS 21305 11161 10842 02036 44513 41409 07001 47516 0/101 04001 32816 1/801 08009 45522 21410 10000 36531 0/101 11014 11706 31413 14001 41923 01203 USSPS 81202 12001 09032 05030 45211 51408 09000 45622 01203 06000 33118 0/102 14000 42722 01207 12013 11206 31409 15000 26206 0/101 UMAGF 31523 50113 0000/ 12003 1/007 22222 32222 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#