:Issued: 2023 Oct 02 1244 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU275 UGEOA 30512 31002 1244/ 9930/ 12022 20022 30022 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2023 10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2023 10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2023 10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 007 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at quiet levels with several C-class flares. There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk, NOAA AR 3445 has started to rotate off the west limb, NOAA AR 3449 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3450 (beta- gamma) are both stable, all other regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The largest flare was a C3.3-flare, with peak time 11:56 UTC on October 02, associated with NOAA AR 3450. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at quiet to moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the last 24 hours. Coronal holes: A positive polarity coronal hole has crossed the central meridian close to the the equator, yesterday on October 01. Solar wind: In the last 24 hours, the solar wind condition near Earth was stable with the solar wind parameters showing a slow wind speed regime. The total interplanetary magnetic field was below 6.7 nT. The Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic fluctuated between positive and negative values with a minimum value of -5.2 nT. The solar wind speed had values varying between 338 km/s and 450 km/s. The phi-angle was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours then later some enhancement due to the wins speed associates to the small coronal hole may be observed in the solar wind parameters recorded near Earth. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours manly quiet with some unsettled period locally (Kp-NOAA, and K-Bel = 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background level over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold value. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal levels in the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 169, BASED ON 19 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 31002 1244/ 01/// 1//// 21610 3010/ 4//// 8//// 9//// 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END UGEOR 30512 31002 1244/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 31405 02070 19132 79003 37623 2/801 80003 42615 21304 81016 41013 2/804 84020 21519 24526 86016 14311 24415 87005 14416 24407 88001 10323 0/101 89006 10712 21311 90001 11530 01203 91002 26313 11305 92001 17025 01204 USSPS 21305 30157 13542 61003 37716 2/801 62005 35323 21303 63011 11717 2/809 65006 40315 21311 68019 23919 24417 70017 16714 11416 71002 12623 0/108 USSPS 32404 30070 09322 33000 46515 0/101 40003 37015 2/801 41003 34822 21302 42003 11713 21302 43004 10115 21507 44007 24120 31408 45003 16912 21302 UMAGF 30503 31002 1004/ 01069 1/014 21221 32232 UMAGF 31523 31002 0000/ 01008 1/010 24221 32133 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#