:Issued: 2024 Nov 04 1238 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU309 UGEOA 30512 41104 1238/ 9930/ 12042 21042 30042 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Nov 2024 10CM FLUX: 237 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Nov 2024 10CM FLUX: 240 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Nov 2024 10CM FLUX: 244 / AP: 010 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 9 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M3.79 flare (SIDC Flare 2488) peaking on November 04 at 01:40 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883), which produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. This region together with SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878) are the most magnetically complex regions on disk, classified as magnetic type beta- gamma-delta. A total of 13 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 306 (NOAA Active Region 3885) currently located at S10W43 has emerged unto the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 283 (NOAA Active Region 3886) currently located at S06E65 has rotated on the visible disk. Four regions are expected to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare. Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off around 00:36 UTC on November 04 from the north-east quadrant. Further analysis of the event is ongoing. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 9 nT with a minimum Bz of -6 nT. The solar wind velocity ranged between 402 and 470 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to gradually return to the slow solar wind regime over the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally and globally quite to active (Kp 1-4 and K BEL 1-4 ). Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease towards background levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 194, BASED ON 11 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 41104 1238/ 03/// 1//// 22410 3015/ 4//// 8//// 9//// 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 03 1511 1524 1529 ////// M1.4 74/3869 03 1738 1753 1758 ////// M1.3 ///3883 04 0052 0057 0102 ////// M1.5 88/3883 III/2 04 0105 0140 0203 ////// M3.8 88/3883 II/1VI/3IV/1 04 0338 0345 0353 ////// M1.1 91/3886 04 0406 0415 0423 ////// M1.0 88/3883 04 0431 0434 0438 N17W11 M1.4 SF 78/3878 04 0702 0708 0721 S09E43 M1.3 SN 88/3883 III/2 04 0829 0840 0847 S07E42 M1.2 SF 88/3883 04 1007 1017 1025 S07E41 M1.6 SN 88/3883 END UGEOR 30512 41104 1238/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 31405 04081 24242 73001 48029 1/801 74006 37718 25403 75006 36716 21304 76001 36109 1/801 78024 42116 25520 82064 10515 41314 85005 34810 24408 86021 30609 24413 87001 40606 0/101 88022 24406 35528 89002 26107 2/801 90001 26513 01202 91019 27405 45516 USSPS 32404 02066 18232 86006 37911 2/801 89015 35019 21509 90001 33511 2/801 92011 34117 51303 93008 47725 21603 94006 45928 21508 97017 10616 51509 99004 36605 21403 00025 13215 5/801 03010 36509 21403 04006 22109 21407 05000 44623 0/103 06000 27505 0/101 USSPS 81202 03015 16922 66025 36117 54507 74016 37403 31404 67002 34410 2/801 69012 35115 2/803 71009 47229 31506 84001 45622 01202 78029 40216 51514 82024 21209 34409 80050 11420 41303 83007 26506 34409 85006 27506 2/801 UMAGF 30503 41104 1004/ 03069 1/028 21113 33444 UMAGF 31523 41104 0000/ 03004 1/015 23111 31345 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#