:Issued: 2026 May 14 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU134 UGEOA 30512 60514 1230/ 9930/ 11142 20142 30142 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2026 10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2026 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2026 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 026 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C5.5 flare (SIDC Flare 7689), peaking at 06:42 UTC on May 14, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 844 (NOAA Active Region 4435, magnetic type beta). There are currently four numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Groups 825, 844 and 867 (NOAA Active Regions 4436, 4435 and 4438) are the most complex groups with magnetic type beta. SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4432) has rotated across the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A wide and slow Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 652) was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 22:24 UTC on May 13, lifting off the west limb. No clear source was identified on the visible disk, suggesting a backsided event that will not impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Coronal holes: A large, negative polarity transequatorial coronal hole (returning SIDC Coronal Hole 147) is still crossing the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting late on May 15. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) reflected slightly elevated solar wind conditions at the beginning of the period, before gradually returning to a slow solar wind regime. Speed values ranged between 390 km/s and approximately 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values decreased from 13 nT to 6 nT. The Bz component varied between -9 nT and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the positive sector. The enhancement was likely associated with the glancing blow arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 650) observed at 13:48 UTC on May 10, possibly combined with a high-speed stream influence from the small positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 159). Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally were unsettled between 12:00 UTC on May 13 and 03:00 UTC on May 14, with NOAA Kp values ranging between 3- and 3+, before returning to quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2). Locally, geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled (K BEL 1 to 3), with an interval of active conditions (K BEL 4) between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on May 13. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 054, BASED ON 12 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 60514 1230/ 13/// 10091 21030 3013/ 4//// 80206 90340 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END UGEOR 30512 60514 1230/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 31405 14070 06322 01001 36916 0/101 02004 45723 21306 07018 11118 21310 09003 43320 12306 USSPS 21305 12150 05632 30042 47212 51503 33005 43423 3/801 35033 13620 51309 32004 34216 2/803 USSPS 81202 13013 04232 00000 35316 0/101 02005 44224 2/802 03020 12617 31309 USSPS 32404 12062 05232 11029 47414 51506 12002 34317 21302 14002 43124 2/801 15008 13818 31403 UMAGF 30503 60514 1004/ 13064 1/017 21232 33321 UMAGF 31523 60514 0000/ 13003 1/013 21212 34433 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#