:Issued: 2025 Dec 14 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 51214
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Dec 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 008

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the
past 24 hours, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C2.8
flare (SIDC Flare 6419) peaking at 13:04 UTC on December 13. It was
associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 718 (NOAA Active Region 4304, magnetic
type beta). There are currently four numbered active regions on the solar
disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 722 (NOAA Active Region
4307) with magnetic type beta-gamma. SIDC Sunspot Group 712 (NOAA Active
Region 4296) has rotated across the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 724 has
decayed into a plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over
the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class
flares.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE) were
enhanced, most likely due to the influence of the high-speed stream from
the negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 142). Speed values
ranged between 480 km/s and 690 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
values varied between 2 nT and 14 nT. The Bz component varied between -5 nT
and 10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the
negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist
over the next 24 hours due to the continued influence of the high-speed
stream.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 2 to 3). Locally, geomagnetic conditions were
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels (K BEL 2 to 3), with an interval of
active conditions (K BEL 4) between 19:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC on December 13.
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected globally and locally over
the next 24 hours, with possible isolated active conditions (NOAA Kp 4, K
BEL 4), due to the continued influence of the high-speed stream.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10
pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below
the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by
GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu
threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently
at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 075, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Dec 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 122
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 021
AK WINGST              : 018
ESTIMATED AP           : 017
ESTIMATED ISN          : 084, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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