:Issued: 2026 Nov 07 1257 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 61107 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Nov 2026, 1256UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2026 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2026 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 026 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Nov 2026 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 024 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low but very frequent over the past 24 hours, with approximately 30 C-class flares identified. All of this activity is associated with SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 992 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4566, Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration). The brightest flare of the past 24 hours was SIDC Flare 8860, a C6 that peaked on November 07 at 11:57 UTC. As the said SG/AR retains its magnetic complexity, M-class flaring activity is likely in the next 24 hours. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME seen in LASCO-C2 images as launched on 6 Nov at 15:24 UTC is a back- sided event and not expected to reach Earth. Solar wind: The Solar Wind (SW) conditions of the past 24 hours were affected by the gradual arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 149 crossing of the central meridian on 4 Nov. The SW speed gradually increased from 340 to 560 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field (B) increased from 4 to 15 nT, and its North- South component (Bz) ranges from -10 to 10 nT. In the next 24 hours the SW speed is expected to increase further, however the magnetic field strength is likely to follow a similar pattern to the past 24 hours. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions of the past 24 hours were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 2 to 3+ and K BEL 1 to 3). However, the arrival of HSS during the past 24 hours is expected to disturbed the geomagnetic conditions in the next 24 hours. At a minimum active levels are expected (K 4), while there is a chance of minor storm levels (K 5) and a small chance of a moderate storm (K 6). Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-19, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so over the next 24 hours. However, in view of SIDC SG 992's increased flaring activity, there is a small chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19, was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold on 6 Nov between 12:05 and 19:50 UTC. It peaked at 5000 pfu at 17:20 UTC. However, the flux has been significantly reduced since and it is expected to remain below the alert threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours. However, since the 2 MeV electron flux has now dropped significantly and is expected to remain relatively low, the 24-hour electron fluence is expected to drop to normal levels in the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 096, BASED ON 06 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 06 Nov 2026 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 125 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 017 AK WINGST : 012 ESTIMATED AP : 011 ESTIMATED ISN : 112, BASED ON 16 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#