Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00217888          21          56          22           1           0        B3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000744592          20          42          30           8           0        B5.2
GOES Xray  =   2.93511e-08          61          36           2           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =       9.00000          37          46          15           2           0        B1.6
 
together                            34.75       45.00       17.25        3.00        0.00     B2.0
 
realized                                                                                      B1.6