Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00235466           4          12          56          25           3        C4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000853101           7          51          36           6           0        B8.1
GOES Xray  =   5.86916e-08          26          64           9           1           0        B1.8
est. ISN   =       15.0000          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            14.00       47.25       29.50        8.50        0.75     B5.9
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)