Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00211734          39          57           3           1           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000614822          35          57           7           1           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   4.61498e-08          53          43           3           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =       15.0000          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            36.50       54.75        7.50        1.25        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                      B4.5