Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00213245          35          54           9           2           0        B1.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000658670          33          59           7           1           0        B1.6
GOES Xray  =   4.75065e-08          52          43           4           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =       16.0000          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            34.00       55.25        9.00        1.75        0.00     B1.6
 
realized                                                                                      B3.6