Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00213087          35          57           6           2           0        B1.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000658306          35          57           7           1           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   4.04965e-08          56          41           2           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =       11.0000          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            37.00       53.25        8.25        1.50        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)