Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00237670           1           7          66          21           5        C4.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000936312           1          22          51          24           2        C2.7
GOES Xray  =   5.51895e-07           1           0          71          24           4        C5.7
est. ISN   =       51.0000           1          17          68          13           1        C2.2
 
together                             0.50       11.75       64.25       20.50        3.00     C3.5
 
realized                                                                                      X2.2