Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00240031           1           6          66          21           6        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00103843           3          13          61          15           8        C3.4
GOES Xray  =   3.27650e-07           4           9          73          14           0        C2.1
est. ISN   =       56.0000           2          19          62          16           1        C2.7
 
together                             2.50       11.75       65.50       16.50        3.75     C3.1
 
realized                                                                                      C2.4