Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00224562           5          49          42           4           0        B9.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000854156           7          49          37           7           0        B8.5
GOES Xray  =   1.62565e-07          11          58          26           5           0        B7.0
est. ISN   =       46.0000           4          24          61           8           3        C1.8
 
together                             6.75       45.00       41.50        6.00        0.75     B9.6
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)