Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00236378           2          14          60          20           4        C3.9
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00103509           1          14          63          15           7        C3.3
GOES Xray  =   3.15442e-07           3          11          74          12           0        C2.1
est. ISN   =       88.0000           1           0          72          24           3        C4.5
 
together                             1.75        9.75       67.25       17.75        3.50     C3.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.8