Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00267355           1           1          56          35           7        C7.2
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00138254           1           1          60          33           5        C6.7
GOES Xray  =   1.01740e-06           1           0          30          59          10        M1.4
est. ISN   =       71.0000           1           3          60          32           4        C5.4
 
together                             0.50        1.75       51.50       39.75        6.50     C8.4
 
realized                                                                                      X1.4