Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00272810           1           1          56          35           7        C7.2
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00138755           1           1          60          33           5        C6.7
GOES Xray  =   1.27685e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =       75.0000           1          10          50          35           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.75        3.25       47.75       40.50        7.75     C9.3
 
realized                                                                                      X1.9